Gold: Bearish targets met, structure turns — FVG compression at 4,540 sets up the week

Macro and fundamental backdrop The macro story shifted this week. Reports of a tentative 60 day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran — designed to create space for formal peace talks — triggered a sharp recovery in gold from its weekly lows.

Gold: Bearish targets met, structure turns — FVG compression at 4,540 sets up the week. Macro and fundamental backdrop The macro story shifted this week. Reports of a tentative 60 day ceasefire extension between the US and Iran — designed to create space for formal peace talks — triggered a sharp recovery in gold from its weekly lows. Trump has not yet signed off on the agreement, and CENTCOM confirmed the ceasefire remains ongoing despite a fresh exchange of fire during the week. The situation is advancing, not resolved. That distinction matters for positioning. Rate expectations have stabilised. The Fed is expected to hold rates at 3.50 to 3.75% at the June meeting — CME FedWatch shows a 98.1% probability of no change. With the energy inflation premium from the Iran conflict beginning to deflate as oil eases, the hawkish case for a rate...