Critical minerals and energy resources in Africa: myth or opportunity?

The continent’s energy future is shaped less by scarcity than by geopolitical concentration, investment timing and strategic dependence. For several years, concerns about a potential shortage of critical minerals used in advanced engineering and China’s dominant role in this regard have been prominent in Western circles. However, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) concludes that the world is not running out of critical minerals. Rather, under aggressive energy transition scenarios, there is a risk of shortages of a few specific minerals in the 2030-2040 timeframe, given the rapid increase in demand for data centres and the energy they consume. Artificial intelligence requires more electricity and critical minerals each year. For Africa, the shifting geopolitics around energy and critical minerals create both vulnerabilities and opportunities. The continent remains heavily dependent on imported refined fuels and external capital, yet also holds many of the minerals central to future energy systems. The focus of the IEA’s report is on the minerals critical to energy futures, namely copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite and rare earth elements. Rather than focusing on shortages, the report shows that the biggest challenges are timing, investment and geopolitical concentration, not scarcity.

Critical minerals and energy resources in Africa: myth or opportunity?. The continent’s energy future is shaped less by scarcity than by geopolitical concentration, investment timing and strategic dependence. For several years, concerns about a potential shortage of critical minerals used in advanced engineering and China’s dominant role in this regard have been prominent in Western circles. However, a report by the International Energy Agency (IEA) concludes that the world is not running out of critical minerals. Rather, under aggressive energy transition scenarios, there is a risk of shortages of a few specific minerals in the 2030-2040 timeframe, given the rapid increase in demand for data centres and the energy they consume. Artificial intelligence requires more electricity and critical minerals each year. For Africa, the shifting geo...